Friday, August 08, 2008

 

Tax Foundation's Tax Rankings Are Questionable

The Tax Foundation has released its annual report that ranks states by their residents’ state-local tax liability. However, there are a number of reasons to question the report’s reliability. The Tax Foundation again substantially changed its methodology from its previous report, suggesting that they doubt their own calculations. For example, Ohio ranked fifth highest in the Tax Foundation’s 2007 report published last year. However, their latest report changes Ohio’s 2007 ranking from fifth to eighth. The 2008 rankings place Ohio seventh in the country. Those disappointed by the ranking should be patient, because they may prefer next year’s 2008 revision. The report analyzes state fiscal year 2008, which ended June 30, however, meaningful data for this type of analysis are not yet available.

Also of note, the numbers are very tight - the bulk of states have similar tax liability. According to their latest report, Ohio is one of twenty-nine states with state-local tax liability between 9% and 10.5%. Putting the reliability issue aside, this calls into question the quest to move down ten or twenty spots in the rankings if this would only decrease taxes by one percent or less. Meanwhile, the price for this change would be the inability to provide the education, infrastructure, and public services that attract people and businesses to Ohio.

Comments:
The very report you question cites your concern:

The 50 state-local tax burdens are mostly very close to each other. This is logical because state
and local governments fund similar activities: public education, transportation, prison systems,
health programs, etc, often under the same federal mandates. Also, in any state where the residents bear a tax burden dramatically
higher than in similar, nearby states, the population of resident business and individual taxpayers in that high-tax state is likely to
shrink. Even modest tax differentials cause outmigration
according to many studies.
Therefore, it is not surprising to find 15 state-local tax burdens clumped in the middle of a tight distribution. Ranking from 17th
highest (Nebraska) to 31st highest (Iowa), they vary only from 9.8 percent of income to 9.3 percent, hovering around the national average of 9.7 percent. Among these 15 states with middling tax burdens, then, slight changes in
taxes or income could translate into apparently dramatic shifts in rank.
 
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